Portland Inventory Report
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Portland Market Report
January Residential Highlights
Although closed sales dragged to a new low in January, pending sales rose 52.5% over December’s total. Comparing January 2009 with the same month in 2008, closed sales dropped 32.5%. Pending sales also fell 26.1%. New listings decreased 15%. On the other hand, when comparing January 2009 with December 2008, pending sales grew 52.5% (1,235 v. 810) and new listings increased 123.2% (4,196 v. 1,880). Closed sales continued to lag, dropping 25.8% (732 v. 987) – a new record low for closed sales in a month since record keeping began in 1992. As a result of the low sales total, and a rising number of active listings (14,076), housing inventory also hit a new high of 19.2 months.
Sale Prices
The average sale price for January 2009 was down 13.3% compared to January 2008, while the median sale price dropped 10.7%. Month-to-month, the average sale price and median sale price are both down when compared with December levels; the average sale price dropped 1.2% ($297,200 v. $300,800) and the median sale price was down 1.1% ($250,000 v. $252,900).
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Time To Buy A House
No matter what the market condition, there is always going to be a group whose turn it is to be in the most advantageous position. Right now it is the first-time home buyer. This is evident by the stat saying 41% of buyers at the end of ’08 were first-timers.
This stroke of luck is for a few reason. With the new lower prices they are able to afford better than they could before, if they could afford anything at all before. Not to mention all that inventory just sitting there, sellers are negotiating.
Then there are the low interest rates that compliment the low home prices so perfectly. It’s like stars are aligning.
Of course buyers right now have to have good credit and a significant down payment, but if a buyer has that in order they are in a great position to get a deal.
There is still a question of whether or not prices have hit bottom yet, but there will always be that risk. Perhaps it means a buyer can take the time to find the perfect deal.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123431356988570855.html?mod=rss_Today%27s_Most_Popular
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Westside Express Service
Yesterday, Monday, Feb. 2, the Westside Express Service commuter rail went on its first ride. The westside of the Portland Metro area now has its own commuter rail line. The 14.7-mile route has five stations in Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin and Wilsonville, with trains running every 30 minutes during weekday morning and evening rush hours.
So far the busiest station has been the Beaverton Transit Center. Officials are hoping it will become popular so that it will reduce traffic on Pacific Highway, 217 and I-5.
The new commuter trains are equiped with free Wi-Fi, bike hooks and swivel seats; and the stations have some fun works of art.
It is hoped that in the future they will be able to offer some weekend hours, but that of course will depend on how much use it gets during commuting hours.
http://tigardtimes.com/news/story.php?story_id=123319608573742100
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Taking Matters Into Their Own Hands
Toll Brothers Inc. is a luxury homebuilder who is tired of watching buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for mortgage rates to hit bottom. They are now offering on their new-home inventory a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at an interest rate of 3.99% with no points paid up-front. The idea is to get those teetering on the fence to finally jump off and buy.
This is a brilliant idea on their part and the phone has been ringing off the hook. Now they are even locking that rate in for nine months for those who want to buy a new, built-to-suit home.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/22/real_estate/builder_slashes_loan_rates/index.htm?postversion=2009012217
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Do You MeetUp?
I was going through the Realtor magazine and found a page about people connecting. With all the blogs and facebook pages and ways people are getting together on the internet this article was letting people know that you can still meet face to face.
Apparently there is this website called http://www.meetup.com/ where you can start or join a group of like minded people who want to meet up and get to know new people.
So I got on there and looked up my city and found all kinds of cool groups! People who meet to hike, play poker, talk about Buffy the Vampire Slayer, dance Salsa, do pub crawls, even get-togethers for World of Warcraft fans.
You don’t even have to join a “networking” group in order to network, although I did find a Real Estate Professionals group. http://www.meetup.com/portlandrealestate/
Is this one of those things everyone already knows about and I’m just the last to hear?!
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Inflated Home Values
This article on CNN.com mentions that one of the reasons that home prices were soaring too high was the appraisals. Loan officers and mortgage brokers were (and do) putting lots of pressure on some appraisers to “hit the number” that the officer or broker was looking for.
So now there will be a Home Valuation Code of Conduct starting in May. These will be guidelines for appraisals being used in loans being sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The guildelines prohibit lenders from coercing, extorting, colluding with intimidating or bribing appraisers.
So what you are telling me is, this was not against the rules before.
The only way this will be of any help at all is if it is actually enforced. Otherwise the appraisers following the rules will be the ones not getting work.
The enforcement comes by way of complaints from appraisers or consumers. If a lender receives too many then they won’t be able to sell loans to Fannie or Freddie.
As usual, I’m sure there are already pleanty of regulations in place that are not already being enforced. Perhaps more are needed but I would be willing to bet that TRUE enforcement is what is really called for here.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/14/real_estate/appraisal_reform/index.htm?postversion=2009011405
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Pendings still going down…
It’s hard to be optimistic when pending sales for the month of November have hit a 7-year low, but you just have to try.
There are so many factors working against home buyers like strict lending standards, recession, rising unemployment and the likelihood that their currant home isn’t selling and/or the value has dropped too much. Even historically low interest rates have only caused a lot of people to refinance their currant mortgage.
The bright side? Well, we can only go up from here, right? It will be slow, but it will be in the right direction.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/06/real_estate/pending_home/index.htm?postversion=2009010614
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Refinancing Frenzy
Interest rates have fallen recently, as most people are aware, and naturally people are rushing to refinance in order to reduce their housing payments.
The average rate for a 30-year, fixed mortgage dropped to 5.08% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, more than a full point lower than just a month ago.
Mortgage applications were up 48% last week, and by far, the majority of those were from homeowners looking to lower housing costs.
Refinancing is not for everyone however. If you currently have an adjustable rate, you could lower your rate by a percentage point or more, you do not plan on selling soon and/or you have significant equity then you should certainly look into getting a new home loan.
Those with an adjustable rate can save themselves a lot of trouble by turning it into a fixed rate while it is low so that future rate increases won’t jeopardized their lifestyle.
Getting a lower rate is a really good idea but because of the fees and costs associated with a new loan, it really is only worth it if you are lowering your rate by a whole percentage point or more.
The balance of your loan will increase when you refinance and paying off the new extra will take a year or two, so it won’t be so helpful if you plan on selling before then.
Some people lost much or all of their equity when home values fell. If your equity has fallen below 20% of the total appraised home value, the borrower will likely have to purchase private mortgage insurance. The insurance adds a point or two to the monthly mortgage costs erasing any advantage of refinancing.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/24/real_estate/when_to_refi/index.htm?postversion=2008122608
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About Us
Tony and Libby Kelly, MBA, M.Ed. are ranked in the top 1% of REALTORS in Portland Metro. They have been featured on HGTV's "House Hunters" 3 Episodes & "My House is Worth What?" 4 Episodes. 
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