Zillow Accuracy
Technology has enabled people to research information that previously was only available from real estate agents. The average person can get on the internet and get an estimate of what their home, or their potential home, is worth. Websites like Homes.com, Trulia and Zillow get used a lot to start their home search. Nowadays people are jumping on their to get an idea of whether they could refinance their home, see if now is a good time to sell or look and see if their home is listed for the right price.
Despite the websites’ disclaimers stating that these are just estimates and that they should consult a real estate agent, these figures tend to hold a lot of weight with consumers. Many use these numbers to determine how they are going to shop or sell. And yet valuations that are 20, 30 or even 50 percent higher or lower than a property’s eventual sale price are not uncommon, and these estimates change all the time. As new data comes in, estimates have been known to adjust by hundreds of thousands of dollars in a month.
The algorithms used to determine the estimates are dependent upon the updated information supplied by the users of the website. Though they claim it’s rare, that leaves potential for home owners or real estate agents to game the system. Not to mention the major shifts in estimates when algorithms are switched out for updated ones. These algorithms are still in their infancy and cannot yet factor in qualities of the home like its condition, finishes, views etc…
Although very helpful and convenient in many ways, home value estimators are still pretty new and people have not necessarily learned to take that number with a grain of salt. This has created some added work for real estate agents who have to explain to their clients why their numbers may not agree with Zillow.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fuzzy-math-of-home-values-.html
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One of America’s Best Downtowns
Portland Oregon has been recognized on a short list of America’s best downtowns. They looked at attributes like attractiveness, accessibility, diversity of offerings, shops, restaurants, proximity of parks and cultural options.
“Although Portland is well known as a city that is friendly to bicyclists, it also has a walkable and attractive downtown that offers a wide variety of cultural options and commercial options. There’s a vibrant and active arts scene, great food on both the high and low ends, the country’s best selection of locally sourced craft beers, an attractive and popular riverside park, and Powell’s, the largest and one of the best independent bookstores in the country. And while you can, with some effort walk around much of Portland’s relatively small downtowns, its best to mike like a local and rent a bike – you’ll get around more effectively, see more of the area, and get a little exercise – all good things in the greenest of “America’s 50 Greenest Cities.””
http://travel.yahoo.com/p-interests-40804394
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Portland Oregon Market Report
September Residential Highlights
Sales activity in the Portland Metro area showed improvements in closed and pending sales this September compared with September 2010, and the inventory level remained much lower than the same month in 2010. Closed sales grew 13.4% in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Pending sales were also up 17.5%, and new listings dropped 29.5%. Comparing the previous month of August 2011 with September 2011, closed sales decreased from 1,805 to 1,586 (-12.1%). Pending sales also went down from 2,187 to 1,861 (-14.9%). New listings fell from 2,879 to 2,501 (-13.1%). At the month’s rate of sales, the 10,666 active residential listings would last about 6.7 months.
Sale Prices
Average sale price for September 2011 declined 4.2% compared to September 2010. Median sale price also fell 3.8%. Month to month, comparing August 2011 to September 2011, sale price activity was mixed. Average sale price went down from $271,800 to $268,200 (-1.3%) while median sale price increased from $225,000 to $230,800 (2.6%).
Third Quarter Report
Comparing the third quarter of 2010 with that of 2011, sales activity was up. Closed sales jumped up by 21.5% (4,340 v. 5,275), while pending sales also increased by 21.6% (4,725 v. 5,747). New listings fell 27.6% (11,582 v. 8,380). In the same quarterly comparison, average sale price fell 6.9%, while median sale price dropped 7.5%.
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Portland OR Market Report
July Residential Highlights
Closed and pending sales were both up in July 2011 compared with July 2010. Additionally, the inventory level in July 2011 was down 3.8 months compared with the same month a year ago. Closed sales grew 21% in July 2011 compared to July 2010. Pending sales were up 18.4%, and new listings dropped 27%. Comparing June 2011 with July 2011, closed sales decreased from 1,958 to 1,709 (-12.7%). Pending sales decreased from 2,001 to 1,928 (-3.7%). New listings went down from 3,143 to 2,942 (-6.4%). At the month’s rate of sales, the 11,970 active residential listings would last about 7 months.
Sale Prices
Average sale price for July 2011 declined 7.4% compared to July 2010. Median sale price also fell 7.6%. Month to month, comparing June 2011 to July 2011, sale price activity rose slightly. Average sale price went up from $267,100 to $275,100 (3%) while median sale price increased from $222,900 to $227,200 (1.9%).
Year-to-Date
Comparing January-July 2010 with the same period in 2011, sales activity was down. Closed sales decreased by 4.3% (11,717 v. 11,209). Pending sales went down by 1.4% (12,733 v. 12,550), and new listings fell 26% (30,051 v. 22,245).
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How To List and Buy at the Same Time
The first key is planning. Meet with your lender about 6 months before you start looking so that anything that can be fixed on your credit gets taken care of before it is time to list and start looking at homes. Talk to your real estate agent and lender about what you can realistically get for your current home so you can figure out what will be left after commission and possible repair costs. If there is not much left, or you are underwater, than you might consider renting out your home until the market improves.
Next, if you don’t have one already you need to find an experienced real estate agent who knows your area. Don’t be afraid to ask for their stats, marketing plans and any details you don’t already know about the home selling process. The most important part of a real estate agents job is setting a realistic beginning list price. Many sellers start off too high only to have it sit on the market when it is at its most visible. Then they end up selling for less than their agents original proposed price and have waisted a lot of time in the process. So not only does your agent need to price right but you, the seller, need to trust their advise.
Closing costs are on the rise. A lot of the increased cost is due to higher bank fees, which banks blame on increased underwriting and processing because there are more regulations to comply with. Get a good faith estimate from a few banks to see who is charging what.
Finally, don’t discount home features like school districts just because you don’t have kids. Homes in good school districts have better resale value because those areas tend to be more stable and your future buyer might very well have kids. Often neighborhoods in good school districts are safer and have a better sense of community. Of course you have to take your life style into account, not everyone wants to be surrounded by young families.
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Portland Oregon Market Report
June Residential Highlights
While closed sales were down in June 2011 compared with June 2010, pending sales jumped compared with the same month a year ago, and inventory hit the lowest level since July 2007. Closed sales were down 2.7% in June 2011 compared to June 2010. Pending sales were up 23.7%, and new listings dropped 22.4%. Comparing May 2011 with June 2011, closed sales increased from 1,742 to 1,958 (12.4%). Pending sales decreased from 2,167 to 2,001 (-7.7%). New listings went down from 3,338 to 3,143 (-5.8%). At the month’s rate of sales, the 11,817 active residential listings would last about 6 months, a drop of 1.3 months since the inventory level in June 2010.
Sale Prices
Average sale price for June 2011 declined 7.8% compared to June 2010. Median sale price also fell 7.1%. Month to month, comparing May 2011 to June 2011, sale price activity rose slightly. Average sale price went up from $262,400 to $267,100 (1.8%) while median sale price increased from $220,000 to $222,900 (1.3%).
Second Quarter Report
Comparing the second quarter of 2010 with the same period in 2011, sales activity was mixed. Closed sales decreased by 11.8% (6,191 v. 5,462). Pending sales went up by 2.3% (5,842 v. 5,978), and new listings fell 21.6% (12,456 v. 9,761). Additionally, the average sale price fell 6.1% ($282,300 v. $265,200), and the median sale price dropped 8.3% ($240,000 v. $220,000).
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Home Equity Improves
A home has negative equity when it is worth less than the outstanding mortgage. The number of homes that fit this description has fallen slightly. 27.2 percent had negative or near-negative equity in the first quarter of this year. It was 27.7 percent of homes at the end of 2010.
Near-negative equity is when a home has less than 5 percent equity and therefore would be a wash once you factor in fees associated with selling a house.
17.2 percent of homes in Oregon have negative equity and 5.8 percent are near-negative. In Washington 16.9 percent are negative and 5.8 percent are near-negative.
The average negative equity home is worth $65,000 less than the mortgage owed.
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Best Beer City
It comes as a surprise to no one, that Portland, Oregon was voted the best beer city in the United States! Travel and Leisure readers spoke up and let everyone know that we’ve got what they want. 35 cities were rated on things like restaurants, bar scenes and weather. Naturally Portland won the microbrew beer category which is a sign that microbrews and quirky flavors are becoming mainstream.
Less importantly, Portland, Oregon also won in categories of Summer, Environmental Friendliness, Public Parks and Outdoor Access, and Public Transportation and Padestrian Friendliness.

http://www.travelandleisure.com/articles/americas-best-beer-cities
http://www.travelandleisure.com/americas-favorite-cities/2010/city/portland-or
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Pending Sales On The Rise
After a 11.3% decline in pending home sales in April, May rose 8.2% after the rain let up some.
This is 13.4% higher than May of last year meaning that there is finally more activity than there was last year!
Over all the trend is plateaued to slightly down but another serious drop is not expected. Mortgage rates are still low, employment is rising and financing is a little easier to get than it has been. It is said that the key will be inventory absorption.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-up-82-in-may-2011-06-29-1020190?Link=obinsite
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Foreclosure Starts Decrease
The foreclosure pipeline has 4 Million homes. These home owners are in foreclosure or are 90 days delinquent or more.
Foreclosure Starts fell below 200,000 which is a 31 percent drop (from March to April). This is a drop of 14.7 percent from last year.
It’s a good sign that foreclosure starts are on the decline, especially since the foreclosure pipeline is already so very bloated.

http://www.inman.com/news/2011/06/1/foreclosure-starts-fall-pipeline-full
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About Us
Tony and Libby Kelly, MBA, M.Ed. are ranked in the top 1% of REALTORS in Portland Metro. They have been featured on HGTV's "House Hunters" 3 Episodes & "My House is Worth What?" 4 Episodes. 

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