Portland Oregon Market Report October
October Residential Highlights
Similarly to last month, sales activity in the Portland Metro area showed improvements in closed and pending sales this October 2011 compared with October of last year. Closed sales went up 14.1% in October 2011 compared to October 2010. Pending sales saw a rise of 15.1%, while there were 22% less newly listed residential properties. A month-to-month comparison of the previous month of September 2011 with October 2011, shows closed sales fell 7.1% from 1,586 to 1,474. Pending sales saw a slight increase of 0.9% from 1,861 to 1,878. New listings were down from 2,501 to 2,433 (-2.7%). At the month’s rate of sales, the 10,012 active residential listings would last about 6.8 months.
Sale Prices
The average sale price in October 2011 fell 6.5% when compared to October 2010. The median sale price also was down by 6.7%. Prices declined when comparing October 2011 to the previous month of September 2011 as well. Average sale price went down from $268,200 to $258,700 (-3.5%), while median sale price decreased by 5.6% from $230,800 to $217,800.
Year-to-Date
A comparison of January-October 2011 with the same period last year shows improvements in closed and pending sales. Closed sales increased 2.1% (16,033 v. 16,372) and pending sales rose 4.5% (17,167 v. 17,939). New listings, however, saw a decline of 26.3%, falling from 41,051 to 30,243.
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Zillow Accuracy
Technology has enabled people to research information that previously was only available from real estate agents. The average person can get on the internet and get an estimate of what their home, or their potential home, is worth. Websites like Homes.com, Trulia and Zillow get used a lot to start their home search. Nowadays people are jumping on their to get an idea of whether they could refinance their home, see if now is a good time to sell or look and see if their home is listed for the right price.
Despite the websites’ disclaimers stating that these are just estimates and that they should consult a real estate agent, these figures tend to hold a lot of weight with consumers. Many use these numbers to determine how they are going to shop or sell. And yet valuations that are 20, 30 or even 50 percent higher or lower than a property’s eventual sale price are not uncommon, and these estimates change all the time. As new data comes in, estimates have been known to adjust by hundreds of thousands of dollars in a month.
The algorithms used to determine the estimates are dependent upon the updated information supplied by the users of the website. Though they claim it’s rare, that leaves potential for home owners or real estate agents to game the system. Not to mention the major shifts in estimates when algorithms are switched out for updated ones. These algorithms are still in their infancy and cannot yet factor in qualities of the home like its condition, finishes, views etc…
Although very helpful and convenient in many ways, home value estimators are still pretty new and people have not necessarily learned to take that number with a grain of salt. This has created some added work for real estate agents who have to explain to their clients why their numbers may not agree with Zillow.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fuzzy-math-of-home-values-.html
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Agent Profile
Tony and Libby Kelly, MBA, M.Ed. are ranked in the top 1% of REALTORS in Portland Metro. They have been featured on HGTV's "House Hunters" 3 Episodes & "My House is Worth What?" 4 Episodes. 
